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New cotton has been continuously listed on the market, and the purchase price of seed cotton is around RMB 4.2/kg. It is expected that this year's output will increase by 12% from last year, and business orders will be lower than in previous years. Cotton yarn stocks are still very large, and spot dealers still have some old cotton in their hands. All this seems to indicate that it is impossible for cotton to rise. It is only that the country holds the bottom and will die.
The author thinks it is not entirely natural.
The country's 19800 collection and storage price is strictly measured, including the cost of cotton cultivation, processing costs, domestic demand, and the entire industrial chain. In other words, it is unlikely that cotton will fall below this price in the next few years. This is the lowest price.
From the point of view of this year's new cotton, cotton farmers are reluctant to sell, and according to the author's understanding, even if the purchase price of seed cotton is 5 yuan/kg, the yield of cotton is not as good as other crops such as corn.
This year's cotton production increased by 12% over last year, which was largely due to the high price of spot cotton last year and stimulated the cultivation enthusiasm of cotton farmers. The cotton-wounded farmer hurts the farmers, and the author believes that the planting area and production of cotton will be much reduced this year.
The treasury can hold 3.6 million tons of cotton, which accounts for nearly 50% of the national output. The author believes that the country can receive a large amount of cotton this year, which will result in the reduction of cotton circulating in the market.
There are many spot dealers complaining that exports will not work, and now the use of polyester is increasing rapidly. The author believes that due to the demand of Europe and the United States and domestic adjustment structure, demand will gradually shift to the domestic. At the same time, as cotton textiles, it is impossible to use polyester, cotton is always used, and the use ratio of cotton will be gradually reduced, but the comfort of cotton is irreplaceable for polyester.
In the case of a large number of cotton stocks and the countryâ€™s monetary policy is not relaxed, it is difficult for cotton to start rising prices. However, the author believes that once the acquisition of cotton is over and the country relaxes its monetary policy, it will be the day for cotton to rise again. From another point of view, the state's purchasing and storage has always been acquired at the lowest point, and it is stored at the highest point. In summary, the author believes that cotton will most likely start to rise at the end of this year or early next year, and 25,000 will see it again, only a matter of time.
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