Traders "internal and external difficulties"

Traders "internal and external difficulties"

Due to the significant increase in the area of ​​cotton planted in India in the 2014/15 season, the total output of lint products is expected to reach 6.7 million tons, and the sale of cotton yarn in the Chinese market is “tepid”, and the arrival in Hong Kong has increased since late August. Since the beginning of September, FOB, CIF, and post-clearance quotations of imported yarns from ports in Qingdao, Guangdong, Shanghai, and Zhangjiagang have all been reduced to varying degrees. Due to lack of supply in the early stage, the price of individual varieties rose by RMB 100-200/tonne Pakistani cotton yarn “turned” downwards, C32S, C40S yarns fell by RMB 200-300/ton, and some preliminary quotes firmed, ICE main contract saw 68 US The confidence held by the points/lb traders since September has abruptly weakened. The quotation of C21S, C32S knitting yarns and C40S woven yarns with relatively large inventory has been reduced by 300-500 yuan/ton, which has accelerated the “destocking” and recovered funds. The intention is obvious. In India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and other real estate, the CIF quotation for cotton yarns also declined, and the lower yarn fell more than combed yarns and high yarns. A trader stated that on September 8-10, the CIF prices of C32S A+ yarns and C32S B yarns of major manufacturers in Qingdao, Weifang, Zibo, and Changzhou, Jiangsu, etc., ranged from US$ 3.10-3.13/kg to US$ 3-3.05/kg. The quotation for C32S and C21S Vietnam brand yarns was concentrated at US$3.06-3.10/kg and US$2.82-2.85/kg. The CIF quotation for Pakistani C21S A yarn and B yarn was mainly concentrated at US$2.75-2.80/kg and US$2.60-2.63. / kg, which is 0.03-0.05 USD/kg lower than that in the middle and late August, and the quotations of the same number of cotton yarns in Vietnam and Indonesia have gradually become equal to those of Indian factory yarns, while the cotton yarn prices in Pakistan and Thailand are increasingly quoting " Drag the hind legs."

The reason why the prices of imported cotton yarns “continued to fall” is due to the following reasons: 1. In the 2014/15 season, the US cotton output was constantly increased due to near-perfect weather conditions, and India’s cotton area was “double harvest” in terms of area and output. With the widening global supply and demand gap and the record high ending inventory, the spot prices of ICE** and Outer Cotton Futures contracts fell sharply. After ICE’s main strength fell below 65 cents, the EMOT M-rated US cotton price was only 72- 73 cents per pound (12/1/2 ship date), the expected reduction in raw material costs of at least 5 cents/pound or more is expected to make the price of yarn not to fail to decline, September 10, China's main port of India cotton S-6 Although the CIF quotation is still as high as 81.2-81.5 cents/pound, the quotation for the customs clearance S-6 is only RMB 16,200-16,300/t; 2. The demand for imported cotton yarn in the Chinese market is stepped on the “slam brake”, inquiry and signing. The enthusiasm rapidly cooled down, especially for India Yarn, Pakistan Yarn and Vietnam Yarn. The single enthusiasm for shipments in September/October fell sharply, mainly due to the domestic cotton spot in September and October with cotton textile companies and traders. The expected sharp increase in the price decline, and the production of low yarn since August The situation of sales is better than that of high-count yarns and combed yarns, and the profit situation is also generally warmer. The operating rate of small and medium-sized cotton mills gradually recovers, and the rate of resumption at small mills in Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan and Hebei reaches over 50%. Cotton yarns below C40S The volume of supply rebounded; 3. According to statistics, as of mid-September, Qingdao, Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and other ports have bonded or cleared the yarns by about 82,000 tons, which is at least 0.5% higher than the mid-August. More than 10,000 tons, and there are still a large number of cotton yarns in Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Turkey, Mexico and Africa are constantly coming to China's main port spinning, is expected in September and October external yarn inventory pressure will continue to rise, including late September The number of yarns outside the port exceeded 90,000 tons. In stark contrast to this, bonded yarns and cleared yarns from India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc. are very slow. Individual high-yield varieties have even become sluggish, importers, and middlemen The panic mood has risen significantly. Although there has been no large-scale sell-off and price cuts, the cotton yarn market can be described as "wind and rain."

Although the international and domestic cotton market and spot prices have stabilized and even rebounded, the majority of Indian and Pakistani and South East Asian mills and exporters generally believe that there is very limited space for the price drop of cotton yarns, especially India’s yarns in the textile sector. After raising the minimum purchase price of seed cotton in 2014/15, the “bottom-bottom” role is more significant than US cotton and West Africa cotton. The CIF quotes of S-6 SM1-5/32〞 and S-6 SM1-1/8〞 from a large international cotton supplier in September/September for 1/2/3/September were 74.20-74.25 cents/. Pounds, 73.60-73.75 cents / pound, just above the minimum sales value of 0.75-1.75 cents / pound, indicating that the decline of Indian cotton is close to the "cost line", but the difference with the Indian S-6 spot in September is still at 8 -9 cents/lb. Some traders said that if buyers specify the Gujarat state S-6, they need to increase the price by 1 cent/lb on the basis of the quotation. In addition, in 2012 and 2013, China’s imports of Indian cotton yarn accounted for more than 50% of India’s cotton yarn export volume. However, since 2014, the share of Indian yarn in the Chinese market has continued to decline, and Turkish, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Thailand and even Africa have been spinning Dazao grabs the market share of cotton yarns in India and Pakistan. Indian yarn mills vigorously explore markets in Europe, America, East Asia and Africa. Most yarn mills are in balance between production and sales, and individual large-scale, stable-quality and timely-supply cotton spinning companies even have orders. In early November.

September 5-10, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Henan and other places A+ India, Indonesia (with higher grades of cotton, slightly less stable product quality) C21S, C32S, C40S yarn quotes concentrated in 21000- 21200 yuan/ton, 23500-23800 yuan/ton, 24500-24800 yuan/ton, C21S yarn fell back 100-200 yuan/ton, and the difference in surface price of domestic cotton yarn with same count was about 300-500 yuan/ton, but settled due to net weight The existence of such procurement methods as LC90 and LC90 days has made imported cotton yarns still more competitive. Some traders stated that ordering the purchase of Vietnam, Indonesia and Uzbekistan yarns is like “**” - sometimes the yarn quality is very good, reaching A+, the strength, CV and other indicators are higher than those of Indian yarns and domestic yarns The level of the factory, sometimes delivered cotton yarn can not be used at all, lack of strength, excessive neps or 100 meters strong head rate exceeded the standard, most yarn mills apply for third-party notarization, thus arbitration and more cases of claims. In recent days, the market has rumors that in order to reduce the impact of low-grade outer yarns on Chinese small and medium-sized textile enterprises and traders, relevant departments may increase the restrictions on the import of cotton yarn. It is not ruled out that customs clearance will not be allowed for a certain period of time to increase import tariffs on cotton yarns or even imports. The use of import quotas, such as cotton, is limited to help small and medium-sized spinning mills and cloth mills to increase their operating rates and back to production and sales.

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